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Newsvine's "Oldefarte" (Hey! I didn't pick that name, he did.) responded to a message about the ongoing power struggle in North Korea with the best analysis of exactly what is going on there that I have ever read. Since I'm sure I couldn't write a better one, I asked Oldefarte if I could republish his analysis here, where it might get read by a few more folks.
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Santayana was right and the past is an excellent predictor of the future, especially in Korea. China will continue to provide enough aid to keep the North Koreans both alive and semi-tractable, however, it is to their advantage to have them as a 'wild card' in their dealings with South Korea and Japan. The erratically aggressive nature of the North Korean regime allows China to play power politics without the onus of seeming to be the aggressor, which, in turn, allows them to basically 'Findlandize' the Japanese (the way Russia was able to keep Finland and Sweden largely neutral during the Cold War) by proxy and to force the South Koreans (and, hence, their American allies) to remain reactive.
All of those provocations out of North Korea during the last couple of years (including sinking that South Korea ship) were designed to make sure that, when Kim Jong Il died, the South Koreans would not be in position, or willing, to attempt any significant rapprochement with the North. Mind you, China doesn't want the North Koreans to start another war, but it doesn't want its economically powerful neighbors (the Japanese and South Koreans particularly) to be free of the worry that they will do so. (And the North Koreans seem to have a penchant for firing missile 'test shots' OVER Japan - a fairly stark reminder of Japan's vulnerability.)
In short, all of the interests of all of the parties (both within and outside North Korea) coincide to dictate that there will be no liberalization or demilitarization of the North. The biggest question will be whether or not the North is content with its past provocations or if it will feel the need for a fresh round of provocations in order to ensure the continuance of the status quo. I tend, on that issue, to be fairly optimistic, if only because the North really "pushed the envelope" with their recent provocations. (Which, frankly, I believe was done precisely because, knowing more of Kim Jong Il's health than we did, they felt obliged to make sure the stage was set ere he croaked.)
As a general philosophy, I tend toward favoring isolationism - certainly, I'm for backing off some of these more insane 'interventions' which we have pursued for the last several decades. However, in Far East Asia, the presence of American troops is probably the only thing which is preventing China, either directly or through its North Korean proxy, from moving to assert effective control over its neighbors. The history of the 'Middle Kingdom' provides plenty of grist for suspicion of Chinese designs on the region and North Korea provides the Chinese an excellent tool by which to test how far they can go, without getting their hands dirty.
